A Cross-Country Analysis of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Reducing Mortality Rates within the EU

We use a linear mixed model in order to estimate the effect of the number of people vaccinated against COVID-19 on the overall death toll on a monthly basis. We limit our analysis for the duration of the year 2021 and within 25 countries which are current or former (UK) members of the EU since these countries follow similar approaches to testing and reporting different COVID-19 related statistics. We explored the effect in question by comparing the total number of people vaccinated up to the end of each month and the total number of deaths occurring during the next month while controlling for several measures including number of new COVID-19 cases, diabetes prevalence, cardio vascular death rates and time trends among others. Our results indicated that one percentage point monthly increase in the total number of vaccinated people was associated, on average, with a decrease of two deaths per general population of 1 million for the next month with the effect being highly significant. An Individual Growth Curves Analysis further corroborates these findings and suggests that vaccination rates may possibly exert additional indirect effects unaccounted for by our main model.