Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 - January 2022

  1. Paola Stefanelli
  2. Filippo Trentini
  3. Daniele Petrone
  4. Alessia Mammone
  5. Luigina Ambrosio
  6. Mattia Manica
  7. Giorgio Guzzetta
  8. Valeria d’Andrea
  9. Valentina Marziano
  10. Agnese Zardini
  11. Carla Molina Grane
  12. Marco Ajelli
  13. Angela Di Martino
  14. Flavia Riccardo
  15. Antonino Bella
  16. Monica Sane Schepisi
  17. Francesco Maraglino
  18. Piero Poletti
  19. Anna Teresa Palamara
  20. Silvio Brusaferro
  21. Giovanni Rezza
  22. Patrizio Pezzotti
  23. Stefano Merler
  24. the Genomic SARS-CoV-2 National Surveillance Working Group
  25. the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 Study Group
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Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021. Data from three genomic surveys conducted in Italy between December 2021 and January 2022 suggest that Omicron became dominant in less than one month (prevalence on January 3: 78.6%-83.8%) with a doubling time of 2.7–3.1 days. The mean net reproduction number rose from about 1.15 in absence of Omicron to a peak of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and 1.33 for hospitalized cases, while it remained stable for critical cases.

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