USA Winter 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence Post-Christmas Update

We have successfully modeled every USA CoVID-19 wave using: <disp-formula id="ueqn1"> <alternatives> <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="22270491v1_ueqn1.gif" position="float" orientation="portrait"/> </alternatives> </disp-formula> where N ( t ) is the total number of new CoVID-19 cases above a prior baseline, and t _R sets the doubling time t _dbl = t _R (ln 2). The new parameters { α _S ; δ _o } measure mitigation efforts among the uninfected population , with { α _S > 0} being associated with Social Distancing and vaccinations ; while { δ _o > 0 }is associated with mask-wearing , which gives a faster <inline-formula> <alternatives> <inline-graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="22270491v1_inline1.gif"/> </alternatives> </inline-formula> post-peak drop-off . The predicted pandemic wave end is when N ( t ) no longer increases.

Using data from 11/15/21-12/30/21, our prior medrxiv . org preprint* showed this initial Omicron CoVID-19 wave had values that matched the initial stage of the prior USA Winter 2020 resurgence { t _R ≈8 05 days ; α _S ≈ 0 011 / day }, when practically no one was vaccinated. In addition, this initial Winter 2021 wave showed virtually no mask-wearing { δ _o ≈ × 0 001 10 ⁻³ / day }, making it capable of infecting virtually everyone. These parameter values indicated that the Omicron variant was likely evading the vaccines in people who thought they were protected.

As a result, stopping the Omicron CoVID-19 spread must once again rely on enhanced Social Distancing and mask-wearing , just like the initial pandemic wave in March 2020. Analyzing the USA follow-on data from 12/25/21-1/31/22 shows that people did exactly that after the Christmas Holiday season, resulting in the following model parameters and values: <disp-formula id="ueqn2"> <alternatives> <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="22270491v1_ueqn2.gif" position="float" orientation="portrait"/> </alternatives> </disp-formula> for this wave by itself, with all prior waves subtracted out as a baseline. Combining all the USA CoVID-19 waves gives these updated totals: <disp-formula id="ueqn3"> <alternatives> <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="22270491v1_ueqn3.gif" position="float" orientation="portrait"/> </alternatives> </disp-formula> assuming no future CoVID-19 Resurgence ( with 4 Figures ).

*(10 . 1101_2021 . 10 . 15 . 21265078)