Fourth Wave of COVID-19 in India : Statistical Forecasting

The spread of COVID-19 pandemic has wave nature. This article proposes a statistical methodology to study and forecast the future waves. The methodology is applied to COVID-19 data from India to statistically forecast the occurrence of fourth wave in India. In the course of this study, the data is fitted by the mixture of Gaussian distribution, and Bootstrap methodology is used to compute the confidence interval of the time point of peak of the fourth wave. This methodology can also be used to forecast the fourth and other waves in other countries also.