Public Health Impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States

  1. Manuela Di Fusco
  2. Kinga Marczell
  3. Kristen A. Deger
  4. Mary M. Moran
  5. Timothy L. Wiemken
  6. Alejandro Cane
  7. Solène de Boisvilliers
  8. Jingyan Yang
  9. Shailja Vaghela
  10. Julie Roiz
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Abstract

Background

As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US.

Methods

A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes.

Results

It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings.

Conclusions

The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.

KEY SUMMARY POINTS

Why carry out this study?

  • Assessing the population-level health and economic impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) is important for policy makers and payers who support decision-making and investment in vaccination.

  • These analyses may be relevant to the public, especially those who remain hesitant to COVID-19 vaccination.

What was learned from the study?

  • This study showed that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) was an effective strategy that contributed to generating substantial public health impact and economic gains in the US in 2021

  • The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and millions of QALYs saved

  • The study highlights the importance of continuing widespread uptake of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) to prevent COVID-19 related disease and generate substantial benefits from a broad, patient-centric, societal perspective

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