Subtyping of major SARS-CoV-2 variants reveals different transmission dynamics

SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, causing waves of the pandemic. Up to March 2022, eight million genome sequences have accumulated, which are classified into five major variants of concern. With the growing number of sequenced genomes, analysis of the big dataset has become increasingly challenging. Here we developed systematic approaches for comprehensive subtyping and pattern recognition for transmission dynamics. By analyzing the first two million viral genomes as of July 2021, we found that different subtypes of the same variant exhibited distinct temporal trajectories. For example, some Delta subtypes did not spread rapidly, while others did. We identified sets of characteristic single nucleotide variations (SNVs) that appeared to enhance transmission or decrease efficacy of antibodies for some subtypes of the Delta and Alpha variants. We also identified a set of SNVs that appeared to suppress transmission or increase viral sensitivity to antibodies. These findings are later confirmed in an analysis of six million genomes as of December 2021. For the Omicron variant, the dominant type in the world, we identified the subtypes with enhanced and suppressed transmission in an analysis of seven million genomes as of January 2022 and further confirmed the findings in a later analysis of eight million genomes as of March 2022. While the “enhancer” SNVs exhibited an enriched presence on the spike protein, the “suppressor” SNVs are mainly elsewhere. Disruption of the SNV correlation largely destroyed the enhancer-suppressor phenomena. These results suggest the importance of fine subtyping of variants, and point to potential complex interactions among SNVs.