Exploring evolution to uncover insights into protein mutational stability

Determining the impact of mutations on the thermodynamic stability of proteins is essential for a wide range of applications such as rational protein design and genetic variant interpretation. Since protein stability is a major driver of evolution, evolutionary data are often used to guide stability predictions. Many state-of-the-art stability predictors extract evolutionary information from multiple sequence alignments (MSA) of proteins homologous to a query protein, and leverage it to predict the effects of mutations on protein stability. To evaluate the power and the limitations of such methods, we used the massive amount of stability data recently obtained by deep mutational scanning to study how best to construct MSAs and optimally extract evolutionary information from them. We tested different evolutionary models and found that, unexpectedly, independent-site models achieve similar accuracy to more complex epistatic models. A detailed analysis of the latter models suggests that their inference often results in noisy couplings, which do not appear to add predictive power over the independent-site contribution, at least in the context of stability prediction. Interestingly, by combining any of the evolutionary features with a simple structural feature, the relative solvent accessibility of the mutated residue, we achieved similar prediction accuracy to supervised, machine learning-based, protein stability change predictors. Our results provide new insights into the relationship between protein evolution and stability, and show how evolutionary information can be exploited to improve the performance of mutational stability prediction.