Spontaneous fluctuations in global connectivity reflect transitions between states of high and low prediction error

While numerous researchers claim that the minimization of prediction error (PE) is a general force underlying most brain functions, others argue instead that PE minimization drives low-level, sensory-related neuronal computations but not high-order, abstract cognitive operations. We investigated this issue using behavioral, fMRI, and EEG data. Studies 1A/1B examined semantic- and reward-processing PE using task-fMRI, yielding converging evidence of PE’s global effects on large-scale connectivity: high-PE states broadly upregulated ventral-dorsal connectivity, and low-PE states upregulated posterior-anterior connectivity. Investigating whether these global patterns characterize cognition generally, Studies 2A/2B used resting-state fMRI and showed that individuals continuously fluctuate between ventral-dorsal (high-PE) and posterior-anterior (low-PE) dynamic connectivity states. Additionally, individual differences in PE task responses track differences in resting-state fluctuations, further endorsing that these fluctuations represent PE minimization at rest. Finally, Study 3 combined fMRI and EEG data, and the study found that the fMRI fluctuation amplitude correlates most strongly with EEG power at 3–6 Hz, consistent with the PE network fluctuations occurring at Delta/Theta oscillation speeds. This whole-brain layout and timeline together are consistent with high/low-PE fluctuations playing a role in integrative and general sub-second cognitive operations.