High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and multiple environmental influences on coral bleaching for regional and local reef managements

Corals are one of the communities most threatened by global and local stressors. Excessive summer sea temperatures can cause coral bleaching, resulting in decreases in living coral coverage. Coral bleaching may begin with rising sea temperatures, although the widely used threshold of 1 °C over the local climatological maximum sea temperature has been reconsidered. In this study, we refine thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing the thermal threshold and multiple environmental influences on bleaching, such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects on corals. We use a dataset of coral bleaching events observed during 2004–2016 in Japan derived from the Web-based monitoring system, the Sango (Coral) Map Project, aiming at regional to local conservation of Japanese corals. We show how the ability to predict coral bleaching is improved by the choice of thermal index, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, usage of multiple environmental influences, and modeling methods (generalized linear model and random forest). After optimization, the differences among the thermal indices in the ability to predict coral bleaching were slight. Among environmental influences, cooling effects, UV radiation, and water turbidity, in addition to a thermal index, well explain the occurrence of coral bleaching. Prediction based on the best explanatory model reveals that recent Japanese coral reefs are experiencing bleaching in many areas, although we show a practical way to reduce bleaching frequency significantly by screening UV radiation. Thus, our high-resolution models may provide a quantitative basis for the management of local reefs under current global and local stressors. The results of this study may be useful to other researchers for selecting a predictive method according to their needs or skills.