Genetic analyses reveal population structure and recent decline in leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) across Indian subcontinent

Large carnivores maintain the stability and functioning of ecosystems. Currently, many carnivore species face declining population sizes due to natural and anthropogenic pressures. The leopard,Panthera pardus, is probably the most widely distributed and adaptable large carnivore, still persisting in most of its’ historic range. However, we lack subspecies level data on country or regional scale on population trends, as ecological monitoring approaches are difficult to apply on such wide-ranging species. We used genetic data from leopards sampled across the Indian subcontinent to investigate population structure and patterns of demographic decline. Our genetic analyses revealed four distinct subpopulations corresponding to Western Ghats, Deccan Plateau-Semi Arid, Shivalik and Terai region of north Indian landscapes, each with high genetic variation. Coalescent simulations with 13 microsatellite loci revealed a 75-90% population decline in between 120-200 years ago across India, possibly human induced. Population-specific estimates of genetic decline are in concordance with ecological estimates of local extinction probabilities in four sub-populations obtained from occupancy modelling of historic and current distribution of leopards in India. Our results confirm population decline of a widely distributed, adaptable large carnivore. We re-iterate the relevance of indirect genetic methods for such species, and recommend that detailed, landscape-level ecological studies on leopard populations are critical to future conservation efforts. Our approaches and inference are relevant to other widely distributed, seemingly unaffected carnivores such as the leopard.