Preparing for the next pandemic takes more than better models: expert consensus recommendations for infectious disease modelling

  1. Leonard Stellbrink
  2. Hendrik Nunner
  3. Anne Schönberger
  4. Maged Mortaga
  5. Michael Mäs
  6. Kai Nagel
  7. Sydney Paltra
  8. Ben Ashby
  9. Philippe Beutels
  10. Tom Britton
  11. Sarah Cuschieri
  12. Thomas Czypionka
  13. Uga Dumpis
  14. Elizabeth Fearon
  15. Neil M. Ferguson
  16. Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad
  17. Enrico Glaab
  18. Reanna Gregory
  19. Eva Grill
  20. Claudia Hanson
  21. Niel Hens
  22. Thomas House
  23. Lorenzo Pellis
  24. Mark Jit
  25. André Karch
  26. Peter Klimek
  27. Tyll Krüger
  28. Alexander Kuhlmann
  29. Martin Kühn
  30. Jana Lasser
  31. Nicola Low
  32. Carlos Martins
  33. James McCaw
  34. Martin McKee
  35. Rafael Mikolajczyk
  36. Christina Pagel
  37. Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
  38. Daniela Paolotti
  39. Matjaž Perc
  40. Elena Petelos
  41. Martyn Pickersgill
  42. Michael Plank
  43. Niki Popper
  44. Barbara Prainsack
  45. Joacim Rocklov
  46. Francesca Scarabel
  47. Helena Stage
  48. Anthony Staines
  49. Ben Swallow
  50. Ewa Szczurek
  51. Robin Thompson
  52. Michael Tildesley
  53. Daniel Villela
  54. Mirjam Kretzschmar
  55. Viola Priesemann
  56. André Calero Valdez
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Abstract

Infectious disease modelling shapes pandemic policy. How that modelling should and should not be done remains untested for agreement. We combined a systematic review with a modified Delphi study among 41 experts in modelling, epidemiology, public health, and social sciences. The experts reworked statements drawn from the review, then rated them. All 40 statements reached consensus, and endorsement was strongest for 38 of them, at the highest possible median. Consensus was strongest on timely data availability, global modelling cooperation, and clear communication of model results and their scope of validity. However, by our assignment, modelling groups can act on only 18 recommendations independently. The rest need agencies, funders, or policy advisors to act between pandemics, demanding sustained funding, institutional mandates, and coordination beyond modelling. The panel worked primarily in high-income countries, so we offer these recommendations and ten priorities as an opening to a global discussion on improving pandemic preparedness.

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