Declining Boswellia serrata population in Eastern India: The interplay of climate change and socioeconomic influences

Comprehending the impact of climate change on species' habitats is essential for their conservation and management strategies. Climate change causes plant species' habitats to contract, resulting in population losses, and habitat modeling is an effective instrument for examining this. Nevertheless, most studies have concentrated on climate scenarios depicted by the Representative Concentration Pathways. Moreover, these studies frequently need more ground validation and incorporate phytosociological assessments to enhance understanding plant dispersal dynamics. This work addresses these deficiencies by incorporating comprehensive field surveys, doing a phytosociological assessment of the area, and employing shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) as proxy pathways. We modeled the potentially suitable habitats for the endangered medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. ex Colebr in the Jharkhand state of subtropical eastern India. Employing Maxent, we forecasted the probable suitable habitat range of B. serrata for both current and future climate scenarios, specifically IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR as represented by SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585. The study indicated that roughly 16,348 km² (~ 20.51% of the study area) currently functions as a suitable habitat for B. serrata. The findings reveal a projected drop of 14.25 to 15.97% in the region's appropriate habitat range of B. serrata by 2060. The species may face local extinction in northeastern Jharkhand, as it is restricted to the northern region. The findings have substantial significance for research and conservation practices, offering fresh insights into the distribution ecology of B. serrata and pinpointing priority regions for conservation efforts.