Assessing Grid Affordability for Universal Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Grid expansion is seen as a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue from customers under current tariffs to support the capital investment for grid expansion is unclear. Assessing this conundrum, this study compiles and analyses household electricity tariffs for the 48 countries in SSA categorized by household demand levels within the Multi-Tier Framework. Under current tariffs, we find that approximately 659 million people (51%) cannot afford Tier 4 electricity throughout the region, rising to 1.11 billion (86%) for full Tier 5 electricity access. Even in cases where higher-tier electricity is theoretically affordable, actual usage remains low. In countries with both low affordability and weak utility health, grid expansion appears unfeasible. However, in some instances, targeted policy reforms and tariff adjustments may provide a path forward, offering a potential solution to overcome these challenges.