High-Resolution Geomechanical Modeling Reveals Accelerating Infrastructure Risks from Permafrost Degradation in Northern Alaska

Permafrost degradation causes irreversible damage to Arctic civil infrastructure and threatens the broader pan-Arctic economy. Currently, the lack of community-scale, geomechanics-based mapping of Arctic infrastructure hazards hinders effective local infrastructure planning. Here, we develop a novel framework that integrates physics-constrained geotechnical models with a process-based ground thermal model to assess the 21st century changes in thaw settlement and bearing capacity of civil infrastructure foundations at a 30-m spatial resolution. We find that settlement is accelerating and bearing capacity is decreasing nonlinearly at both regional and local scales. By mid-century, less than 10% of the infrastructure in northern Alaska is projected to be at high risk; however, a tipping point emerges around the 2060s. Beyond the tipping point, most infrastructure will face high risk if mitigation measures are not implemented. Our results underscore the urgent need for proactive adaptation strategies to protect Arctic infrastructure from permafrost degradation-induced hazards.