Global and Regional Burden of Thyroid Cancer Attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021 and Modelled Projections to 2041

BackgroundThyroid cancer (TC) has emerged as a globally significant malignancy with rising incidence globally. Epidemiological evidence identifies high body mass index as an independent metabolic risk factor demonstrating dose-dependent associations with both TC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This population-level analysis quantifies the global epidemiological burden of TC attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021, employing standardized comparative risk assessment. Inform evidence-based interventions for risk stratification and prevention strategies.MethodsThis study analyzed global TC burden attributable to high BMI using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) were stratified by year, sex, age group, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were quantified through average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) metrics. Three analytical approaches were implemented: 1) decomposition analysis to identify key contributors to burden variations, 2) frontier analysis to benchmark national performance, and 3) health inequality assessment across SDI quintiles. Burden projections through 2041 were using Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling.ResultsASMR and ASDR for TC attributable to BMI exhibited sustained increases between 1990 and 2021 globally. Concurrently, mortality and DALY counts rose significantly, with projections indicating continuation of these trends over the next two decades without targeted interventions. Elevated burdens in high-SDI regions correlated with heightened obesity prevalence, aging, and population expansion, with observed socioeconomic disparities widening over time. Consistent gender disparity was observed, with females demonstrating higher susceptibility across all age cohorts. Significant disparities emerged in national-level burden management, as select low-SDI regions performed better than certain high-SDI regions.ConclusionThe persistent public health impact of thyroid cancer associated with high BMI requires prioritized prevention, particularly in high SDI regions. Demographic variations across gender and age groups require precision-based interventions.