Spatial and Causal Effects of Sports Facilities on Medical FacilityDevelopment: Evidence from Jiangxi Province, China

This study investigates the spatial and causal relationship between sports and medical facilities in Jiangxi Province, China, from 2012 to 2023. Spatial distribution analysis reveals a persistent concentration of both sports and medical facilities in urban areas, with a significant increase in both sectors after 2016. The number of sports facilities POIs increased from 18,871 in 2012 to 44,028 in 2023, while the number of medical facilities POIs grew from 3,059 to 5,916 over the same period. We observe gradual improvements in coverage at the county level, with rural areas showing significant growth in both sports and medical facilities. Using multi-year Points of Interest (POI) data at 1 ~ km resolution, we integrate spatial statistical analysis with modern causal machine learning methods, including Double Machine Learning (DML) and Causal Forest (CF), to estimate both average and heterogeneous treatment effects. The results demonstrate a consistently positive correlation between the growth of sports and medical facilities. Contemporaneous causal effects show an increase from 1.04 in 2013 to 2.18 in 2023, while lagged effects range from 1.38 in 2013 to 2.15 in 2023. Heterogeneity analysis indicates stronger effects in economically developed areas, with a particularly large impact in regions with a higher ageing population. Robustness checks, including placebo tests, alternative model specifications, and adjustments for spatial autocorrelation, confirm the reliability of our findings. The study suggests that integrated planning of sports and medical facilities, tailored to regional conditions, can enhance public health infrastructure and contribute to the goals of the ``Healthy China 2030'' strategy.