Applying MaxEnt to Predict the Future Distribution of Human-Black Bear Conflicts in Toyama and Akita Prefectures, Japan

Human-bear conflict (HBC) is an increasingly urgent issue in Japan, causing severe injuries and fatalities. Previous studies link conflict patterns to climate change and mast fluctuations. More recently, Japan’s demographic trend has emerged as a key driver, yet its influence remains poorly understood, making future conflicts hard to predict as depopulation and ageing intensify. This study uses the MaxEnt species distribution model to map bear witness probabilities and integrates demographic projections to predict future HBC patterns in Akita and Toyama Prefectures. MaxEnt results indicate a high probability of bear sightings reaching Akita’s urban core, while in Toyama, human and bear habitats remain more clearly separated. In Toyama, high-risk clusters are scattered across towns, agricultural areas, and forest edges, with risk expected to rise gradually over the next 25 years, particularly around the urban fringe. In contrast, Akita’s urban core forms a concentrated hotspot, with risk projected to increase sharply in the same area. Current management approaches are becoming increasingly ineffective as hunter numbers have declined sharply. By identifying emerging hotspots and long-term trends, this study offers insights to improve resource allocation, strengthen local management strategies, and better support human-bear coexistence.