IL-6 and TNF-α as Predictors of Mortality in Octogenarians: Evidence from a Brazilian Cohort

Inflammaging—characterized by chronic low-grade inflammation associated with aging—has been consistently linked to an increased risk of mortality, with cytokines acting as central mediators of this process. Therefore, investigating biomarkers capable of predicting outcomes in the oldest-old becomes particularly relevant, especially among Brazilian older adults, whose sociodemographic and health contexts differ from those observed in developed countries. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate whether inflammatory cytokines predict mortality in individuals aged 80 years and older, based on a retrospective Brazilian cohort. Between 2016 and 2018, sociodemographic and anthropometric variables were collected, and peripheral blood samples were obtained to measure inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. In 2024 and 2025, mortality occurrence was ascertained through information from family members and caregivers, copies of death certificates, interviews, and consultation of the National Registry of Deceased Individuals. In univariate Cox regression models, each unit increase in TNF-α concentration was associated with a 30% increase in mortality risk, while each unit increase in IL-6 levels was associated with a 1% increase in the risk of death, suggesting the potential utility of these cytokines as prognostic biomarkers in the oldest-old.