Dynamic Effects of Population Aging on Housing Prices in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities, 2014–2023

Population aging is emerging as an increasingly important force shaping urban housing markets, yet its impact on housing prices remains theoretically contested and empirically inconclusive. Using an unbalanced panel of approximately 250 prefecture-level cities in China from 2014 to 2023, this study investigates the dynamic effects of population aging on housing prices. To address price persistence, unobserved city heterogeneity, and potential endogeneity between demographic structure and housing markets, we employ dynamic panel models estimated by the system generalized method of moments (System GMM). The results reveal a clear time-varying relationship between population aging and housing prices. Contemporaneous aging is positively associated with both commercial and residential housing prices, suggesting that in the short run, aging may still sustain housing demand through channels such as accumulated household wealth, intergenerational support, and family-based housing arrangements. In contrast, lagged aging exerts a significantly negative effect on housing prices, indicating that deeper demographic aging may gradually weaken medium-term housing demand and slow subsequent housing price growth. Further analysis shows that these effects vary across urban socioeconomic contexts. The negative lagged effect of aging is more pronounced in cities with higher levels of economic development, more advanced industrial structures, and stronger consumption capacity. This suggests that the housing-market consequences of population aging are shaped not only by timing, but also by local structural conditions. This study contributes to the literature by providing city-level evidence on the dynamic and context-dependent effects of population aging on housing prices in China. The findings also offer policy implications for cities confronting both demographic transition and housing market adjustment.