Scenario Based Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Dutch Macro Infrastructure Stocks: Assessing Future Material Demand and Circularity Potentials

Enabling circularity in infrastructure systems depends on effectively recovering secondary raw materials from end-of-life (EoL) stocks to offset future demand for virgin materials. This study develops a dynamic material flow analysis model to forecast future raw material demand and the potential secondary material supply from EoL macro-infrastructure (excluding buildings) in the Netherlands for three bulk materials – steel, concrete, and asphalt. Model results indicate that by 2070, annual demand for steel and concrete will increase significantly—by 94–104% and 58–94%, respectively—while asphalt demand remains relatively stable with a projected increase of only 1–2% compared to 2024 levels. By applying material circularity strategies (reuse, remanufacturing, repurpose and recycling), 0.51–1.1 Mt of steel, 0.6–1.75 Mt of concrete, and 19–22 Mt of asphalt could be recovered annually from 2024 to 2070, potentially fulfilling 74–86% of steel, 71–83% of concrete, and 92–101% of asphalt demand across multiple scenarios. However, due to technological, regulatory and financial constraints, closed loop material circularity is estimated at around 31–40% for steel, 3–23% for concrete and 50–85% for asphalt during the projected timeframe. Fully recovering these EoL material stocks could reduce annual virgin material demand by 16–49% between 2024 and 2070. These findings provide a range of future material demand estimates, provide systems-level understanding of material circularity potential in the Dutch macro-infrastructure sector, and support policies to reduce primary material use, embodied emissions, and achieve the 2050 net-zero target.