Segmented Regression of Projected Global Age-Standardized Incidence Rates for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancers Using GBD 2023 Forecasts

Background Cancer continues to be a significant global health challenge, with an estimated 18.5 million new cancer cases in 2023, projected to increase to 30.5 million by 2050. This increase is largely driven by population growth and aging rather than worsening underlying risks. Breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers serve as key indicators of trends in cancer burden due to their relationship with prevention, screening, and vaccination. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease 2023 (GBD 2023) cancer forecasts, we applied segmented regression analysis to project global age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers from 2024 to 2050. Linear models were fitted to the natural log of the ASIR to estimate trends and annual percent change (APC) in incidence over time. Results For breast cancer, the ASIR is expected to decline slightly by 1.3% from 2024 to 2050, with a near-flat trend followed by modest declines. Colorectal cancer incidence is projected to decrease by 2.6%, with an early rise followed by a sharper decline after 2041. Cervical cancer is projected to show the steepest decline, decreasing by 13.3% over the study period. Conclusion While global age-standardized incidence rates for breast and colorectal cancers show modest declines, the absolute burden of cancer cases will still rise due to population aging. Continued investment in prevention, screening, and early detection remains critical to managing future cancer burden.