Accelerating and disproportionate burden of depression attributable to intimate partner violence among women in Low and Low-middle SDI regions

Background Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major, preventable threat to women’s health and a key contributor to depression. The COVID-19 pandemic may have increased IPV exposure while disrupting support services. We examined long-term trends, inequalities, pandemic-related changes, and future burden of IPV-attributable depression across SDI regions. Methods We conducted a population-level analysis using GBD 2023 data for females aged ≥ 15 years across five SDI regions from 1990 to 2023. We assessed trends, age patterns, and decomposed recent changes into epidemiological, demographic, and ageing components. Socioeconomic inequalities were quantified using slope and concentration indices. Associations between COVID-19 incidence and IPV-attributable depression burden were analysed in lower SDI regions. Future trends to 2050 were projected using Bayesian age–period–cohort models. Results The burden of depression attributable to IPV increased across all SDI regions, with a faster rise after the late 2010s. The highest burden remained concentrated in low and low-middle SDI regions. Peak burden occurred in early to mid-adulthood, with earlier peaks in lower SDI settings. Inequalities persisted and widened over time. Recent increases were driven mainly by epidemiological change rather than demographic factors. Higher COVID-19 incidence was associated with increased burden in low SDI countries but not in low-middle SDI countries. Projections suggest the burden is likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels. Conclusions IPV-attributable depression among women continues to rise, with sustained inequalities across development levels. Targeted, integrated IPV prevention and mental health strategies are needed, particularly in lower SDI regions and among women in early and mid-adulthood.