Money in the Bank: Progressive Problem Shifts in Criminological Science

Criminology struggles to achieve progressive problem shifts, or cumulative theoretical development common in fields like physics and biology. This stems from a “precision crisis”: a tendency to accept imprecise descriptions, vague theoretical predictions, and analytical practices that obscure data. Drawing on Meehl’s framework, we argue criminological knowledge risks resembling “Monopoly money in the bank” rather than genuine scientific currency. We propose fundamental shifts: prioritizing precise description of concrete phenomena, subjecting theories to risky tests, critically questioning psychometric assumptions, and generating high-resolution data. While academic incentives are a significant barrier, we also explore arguments that these incentives may reflect deeper disciplinary tendencies that favor broader narratives over precise, falsifiable knowledge. The path toward cumulative criminology involves developing approaches that precisely capture complexity while yielding falsifiable knowledge, rather than lowering standards.